Sam’s Boom & Bust Fantasy Football Picks for the NFL Season
BOOM:
- David Montgomery:
Yes, there are several great RB1 options this year, but Montgomery going to Houston was massive for both parties. Montgomery has been splitting reps in Detroit for the last three seasons with Gibbs and maintained his health for the most part. Look for Montgomery to be the constant on the Texans offense while CJ Stroud gets into a rhythm with his rotating receiver corps. Montgomery is currently falling to the 5th round in ADP, but I have seen him go even lower in some deeper drafts. Montgomery is a solid RB2/fringe RB1 option.
- Courtland Sutton:
The Broncos were a Super Bowl contender last season with Sutton leading the way on offense. While he was WR10 in total fantasy points last season (8.9 YPT), Sutton landed in the top 25 (№22) for PPG in 2025. The Broncos added Jaylen Waddle in the offseason to fill the WR2 position. Having Waddle in the slot for Denver should free Sutton up to get more touches and improve his overall fantasy outlook.
- Ladd McConkey:
Coming off a slower year, McConkey should bounce back from his WR29 season with the departure of Keenan Allen. The Chargers’ line is definitely something to monitor as Herbert enters a pivotal year in his career. If Ladd can get targets, he’ll light up SoFi and your fantasy scoreboard.
- Isaiah Likely:
Isaiah Likely kicked off last season as one of the most heavily recruited waiver wire picks. After that, we didn’t see much more from him for the entire season since he split routes with Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Likely signed with the Giants in the offseason, and I expect him to have a heavy presence in the New York offense. Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy will lead the New York Giants running back room, and Malik Nabers will supposedly be healthy by Week 1, but I think a quarterback with an unsteady offensive line will always find his best friend to be the tight end.
Don’t Value Too High:
- Drake London:
London is no doubt a top contender at the wide receiver position in the NFL, but the health problems he has dealt with over the last two seasons make me wary of drafting him at all. That’s not even taking into account the quarterback situation in Atlanta, with neither Tua nor Penix confirmed as the starter yet. I wouldn’t grab London with my first pick, but he could wind up being a solid second grab for somebody in your league.
- Kenneth Walker:
Kenneth Walker concluded last season with an MVP performance in Super Bowl LX, rushing 27 times for 135 yards and totaling 161 scrimmage yards in the Seahawks’ 29–13 win over the Patriots. He played all 17 games in 2025, finishing with 1,027 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and 31 catches for 282 yards, and now he’s going to be the starting running back for the Kansas City Chiefs. I don’t see the Chiefs having an aggressive or effective offense with a questionable Mahomes leading the squad. Walker may be a great option in the red zone, but don’t waste an early pick on a “maybe.”
- Justin Jefferson:
Justin Jefferson is still a top-3 receiver in the NFL, but the Vikings have the QB option of either Kyler Murray or J.J. McCarthy. Neither of those options gives me confidence that Jefferson is a guaranteed Round 1 pick. The ball does have to go to someone on the offense, but I have no faith in either of these quarterbacks getting Jefferson the ball.
- Puka Nacua:
Puka is an insane athlete and put up great numbers again last year for the second season in a row. While my reasons for caution around drafting Puka are external and not as much about his injury status or talent, I think they are completely relevant in the Rams’ locker room and on the field. Puka seems to be trending in a negative direction off the field and is setting that up as a standard for his career. I hope the locker room can rally around Nacua and prove me wrong, but I would caution anyone against picking a player who gets more negative press than his entire team combined.
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