Sam’s Way-Too-Early NFL Division Power Rankings
NFC North:
The Bears went on a 14–3 run last season as they were led by Coach Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. Unless the team has a random implosion, I expect Chicago to be the leader in the NFC North.
This division is interesting since a majority of the teams in the NFC North finished last season above .500. It’s not a hot take to say this division is one of the more competitive overall divisions in the NFL.
The Vikings have an absolute mess in the QB room with Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, and J.J. McCarthy. The Lions ended last season with 9 wins, but there was definitely some lacking defensive strength missing from that group compared to what we’ve seen in recent years. The Packers had a very solid draft and should have a rejuvenated Micah Parsons on the field this season. If there’s a team that could climb higher, it’s definitely Green Bay if they can make some movement in Free Agency and give Love some much-needed targets. Seeing the upcoming QB class paired with some QB contract negotiations makes me think this is a very important year for Jordan Love.
NFC South:
The Falcons took a big step backwards for me in this offseason by signing QB Tua Tagovailoa. Drake London struggles to play a whole season, which led to Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts leading the team on offense last season. The Falcons brought Cleveland’s coach, Kevin Stefanski, to Atlanta, but I don’t know why since he wasn’t successful in his previous role.
As for the Saints, I like a few additions they’ve made to the team such as Travis Etienne at RB, but I am curious to see if their defense can stop anyone.
The Panthers did win the division last year in a close race, but this is a make-or-break year for Bryce Young with a loaded QB draft class on the way. I could see several seasoned QBs in new homes by the beginning of the 2027–2028 season. Another QB that is running out of time is Baker Mayfield. With the exit of Mike Evans, will Egbuka and a bruised up Chris Godwin be enough to lead that Tampa offense to victory?
None of these teams are below 7-win teams, so this division could get interesting.
NFC West:
Rams and Seahawks and 49ers, oh my! Well, not really I guess. I think these teams have had turns at being good (except Arizona), but age and the long game schedule seem to be catching up to these rosters.
Why is Arizona in the bottom end of this division? They don’t even know for sure if their QB (who is normally a backup) is playing due to contract disputes.
San Francisco had a lackluster draft (C-) where they neglected to truly make an impact on the offensive side of the ball. Brock Purdy, CMC, and an injury-prone George Kittle will have to carry the offense if they want to stay competitive in this tough division. The exit of Jauan Jennings was followed by signing Mike Evans this offseason. While Evans is still a great veteran to have on the team, I think his inability to remain healthy in the season will be troublesome for San Francisco. The 49ers are in desperate need of an offensive injection that supports their All-Star running back.
NFC East:
The NFC has two popular front-runners currently in Philadelphia and Dallas, but both the Commanders and Giants aren’t out of the race in the NFC East.
AJ Brown is out in Philly (or that’s what everyone is thinking by June 1st). Saquon Barkley is coming off a season where he was the #10 overall running back, and I expect him to improve on those numbers. It’s not like Barkley to decline two seasons in a row. The Eagles had a solid draft to help counterbalance some losses on the defensive front. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Philadelphia lead the NFC East all the way to the postseason.
The Cowboys need to improve on the defensive front in order to give the offense a chance to win games. Last year the Cowboys were abysmal at stopping offensive schemes, but look for this defensive front to be young and rejuvenated after the draft.
Washington is coming off a season where their team was injured and depleted. I like what the Commanders did in the offseason and expect to see a solid year for Jayden Daniels.
The Giants are a big question mark for me this season. They are being led by John Harbaugh after Baltimore decided they definitely didn’t want to win a Super Bowl. I don’t like the way the team handled Harbaugh’s exit and actually wish for him to be successful. Jaxson Dart has got to use his brain for more than propping up designer sunglasses this year. The guy is an athlete, but he can’t be taking shots and living in the blue tent this year.
AFC West:
Bo Nix is expected to be ready for the beginning of the season. After a 14–3 season last year, I am curious to see if Sean Payton and Nix can replicate the same success. The Broncos won 11 games in the regular season by one score, but then fell to the Patriots in a 3-point loss. The Broncos are doing what’s needed on the offensive side of the ball (in the air), but a running game and more defensive help could increase that win differential. I love the Broncos grabbing Center Kage Casey out of Boise State, but the WR and RB positions are interesting for me to see going into June this year.
This is a make-or-break year for Justin Herbert in Los Angeles. They didn’t pursue any new targets for Herbert, but you can’t count Harbaugh out. This upcoming QB class could be a great catalyst for quarterbacks who need to show out this season. Next offseason will be a test of loyalty and belief in each team’s offensive generals.
The Raiders will improve, but curious to see if Kirk Cousins can be the answer for a season or two while Fernando Mendoza adjusts to the different pace and procedure of the professional league. The Raiders have had a great offseason (most likely led by Tom Brady), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see their W/L floor at around 5–6 wins this season. Look for the Raiders to break somebody’s heart as they build for a better future this year.
AFC East:
I have no faith in Geno Smith or the New York Jets. They will be as bad, if not worse, this upcoming year, and I hate that so much for Garrett Wilson.
Malik Willis lucked out with the signing by Miami. I like Willis and I’m happy for him, but oh boy did the Dolphins overpay. Willis also gets to deal with the fact that his WR1 (Waddle) got traded away for not one, but two 1st round draft picks.
Patriots are dealing with drama from the Vrabel situation, but they are a few offensive weapons away from playoff contention. You can’t count a team that made it to the Super Bowl last year no matter what drama they have going on. Will Vrabel be the coach on Day 1? I’m thinking yes. It won’t be too long till someone else stirs something up in the offseason.
Hesitant to put the Bills at 1 since they didn’t do too much to help out the offense in the draft or FA. Josh Allen has to make something happen this season. The Bills have a top RB and QB duo in the league. This is a year where the AFC could see a shakeup.
AFC South:
Joe Mixon was a dud for Houston, but they are primed to be the biggest movers in the AFC South. David Montgomery is their new RB1, and they are looking to take some pressure off Stroud with a solid run game.
The Colts’ starting QB is out. They traded away their WR1 Michael Pittman Jr. Alec Pierce had surgery on his foot/ankle months after getting a solid payday. Daniel Jones’ Achilles recovery is expected to be in full recovery and ready to start Game 1. Talk about risky. Expect the Colts to float between #3 and #4 in the AFC South.
Tennessee will be the 2nd-best improving team in the AFC South behind Houston this year. Cam Ward now has some weapons and the defense is primed with new leadership. The Titans have a floor this upcoming season of 5 games and a ceiling around 7–8 games.
Jacksonville is walking backwards. Got rid of Etienne and followed that up with my lowest rated draft performance in the entire league. Why would you get rid of a top running back in the NFL from last season that has had chemistry with your QB since college?
[Personal Rant] I personally love the stupid decisions in Jacksonville. I genuinely hope the Jaguars have a terrible season after the late hit they had on Cam Ward last year. Sunshine had a chance to take the Jags to the bowl, but it didn’t work out, and now I hope he gets a 2-win season before being replaced with Trinidad Chambliss out of Ole Miss. Rant over.
AFC North:
As much as I hate to admit it, I have the Ravens with the #1 Draft Grade in the NFL. They made a lot of solid moves and added some depth to their roster at WR, EDGE, and offensive line. This division seems to be scrambling for some form of normalcy. Mike Tomlin is out in Pittsburgh.
The Cleveland Browns have no clue who their starting QB is going to be, and Joe Burrow is looking to have “fun” again in Cincinnati without getting injured…again.
The AFC North head coaches include Jesse Minter. Mike McCarthy. Zac Taylor. Todd Monken. What a bunch of losers.
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