Data desk

Titans on Third Down: The Numbers

Every game, every split, 2023 to 2026 Week 4.

By Sam CassidyUpdated Data through 2026 Week 4

34.4%

243 conversions on 707 third downs since the start of 2023

30th of 32

League rate without Tennessee: 39.5%

All 32 teams, 2023 to 2026 Week 4

League table

Dashed line is the league rate without Tennessee, 39.5%. Tap a team for its conversions by season.

1SF62929847.4%
2BUF67631646.7%
3GB66429244.0%
4TB73532143.7%
5KC71831143.3%
6BAL63827442.9%
7CIN70630242.8%
8DAL71630642.7%
9DET69029242.3%
10PHI72330341.9%
11LAC76131341.1%
12ARI69828641.0%
13LAR67026739.9%
14CHI75329839.6%
15DEN73628939.3%
16JAX69427139.0%
17WAS67926539.0%
18NO73628638.9%
19IND69926838.3%
20PIT72027538.2%
21MIA65624837.8%
22ATL68425737.6%
23HOU74828037.4%
24SEA66825037.4%
25MIN67924836.5%
26NYG75727035.7%
27NE68724535.7%
28CAR71525435.5%
29LV70624835.1%
30TEN70724334.4%
31NYJ72424033.1%
32CLE77124431.6%
Titans vs league

Season by season

2023
Coach: Vrabel
33.5%
League 38.9%
71 of 212. 28th of 32. p = 0.119
95% interval 27.5% to 40.1%. Dashed line is league rate.
2024
Coach: Callahan
37.7%
League 39.8%
81 of 215. 19th of 32. p = 0.583
95% interval 31.5% to 44.3%. Dashed line is league rate.
2025
Coach: Callahan, McCoy (interim)
31.9%
League 39.8%
74 of 232. 31st of 32. p = 0.016
95% interval 26.2% to 38.1%. Dashed line is league rate.
2026 (W1-4)
Coach: Saleh
35.4%
League 39.4%
17 of 48. 20th of 32. p = 0.686
95% interval 23.4% to 49.6%. Dashed line is league rate.
By coach
EraGMadeRateLeaguep
All 55 games55243 of 70734.4%39.5%0.006
Vrabel1771 of 21233.5%38.9%0.119
Callahan (2024 and 2025 W1-6)23104 of 29735.0%39.8%0.106
McCoy interim (2025 W7-18)1151 of 15034.0%39.8%0.172
Saleh (2026 W1-4)417 of 4835.4%39.4%0.686
All 55 games

Game by game

2023 Week 17 vs HOU is the only game with p below 0.050, shown in red. About 3 of 55 games would flag by chance alone.

Bars are Titans conversion rate. Cream tick is the league rate that season. 55 games shown.

Splits explorer

Where it breaks down

Venue
Home
39.1%
140 of 358
Road
30.0%
102 of 340

On the road the Titans converted 102 times. A league-average offense facing the same distances converts about 126.

Adjusted p for Away: 0.005

One of roughly 150 splits checked. Treat any single result as a lead.

Cream is the Titans rate. Copper is the expected rate for the same distances. Red means adjusted p below 0.050.

What else was going on

Context

Coaches
  • Vrabel: 17 games, 33.5%
  • Callahan (2024 and 2025 W1-6): 23 games, 35.0%
  • McCoy interim (2025 W7-18): 11 games, 34.0%
  • Saleh (2026 W1-4): 4 games, 35.4%
Home surface
  • Nissan Stadium: Synthetic

Nissan Stadium is synthetic (Matrix Helix) since 2023.

Levis shoulder injury: sources disagree

SI reports on Oct. 9 and Oct. 25, 2024 place the shoulder injury in Week 4. An SI report on Nov. 6, 2024 places it in Week 6. We report both and do not pick one.

Game notes
  • 2023 W3 CLE. Malik Willis relieved starter Ryan Tannehill during this game. [1]
  • 2023 W6 BAL. Tannehill suffered a high ankle sprain in this game (8/16, 76 yds, 1 INT before leaving). Willis relieved and took 4 sacks across two fourth-quarter drives. [1][2][3]
  • 2023 W8 ATL. Rookie Will Levis made his NFL debut as primary QB; Willis also played. [1][2]
  • 2024 W4 MIA. Will Levis hurt his throwing shoulder diving for a first down and left the game (SI, Oct. 9 and Oct. 25, 2024). [1][2]
  • 2024 W6 IND. Levis played this game after the shoulder injury (bye in Week 5). Note: SI Nov. 6, 2024 dates the shoulder injury to Week 6; SI Oct. 9 and Oct. 25 date it to Week 4. [1][2]
  • 2024 W7 BUF. Mason Rudolph started in place of Levis (shoulder). [1][2]
  • 2024 W8 DET. Mason Rudolph started in place of Levis (shoulder). [1]
  • 2024 W9 NE. Levis inactive for a third straight week; Rudolph started (third consecutive start). [1]
  • 2024 W10 LAC. Levis returned as the starter (Titans had hoped for a Week 10 return). [1][2]
  • 2024 W14 JAX. Levis was hit by Jacksonville's Josh Hines-Allen and appeared to hurt his shoulder again. [1]
  • 2024 W15 CIN. Rudolph replaced Levis during the game and went 21/26 for 209 yds. [1]
  • 2024 W16 IND. Levis benched; Rudolph started (announced Dec. 18, 2024). [1][2]
  • 2024 W18 HOU. Callahan announced Levis would start the finale; Rudolph also played. [1][2]
  • 2025 W1 DEN. RT JC Latham aggravated a hip injury in this game. Rookie QB Cam Ward (No. 1 pick) started. [1][2]
  • 2025 W2 LAR. RT Latham out (hip). Ward was sacked 11 times in the first two games, losing 82 yards. [1][2]
  • 2025 W4 HOU. Callahan handed play-calling to QBs coach Bo Hardegree ahead of this game (announced Sept. 23 after an 0-3 start). [1][2][3]
  • 2025 W5 ARI. Latham and Blake Hance (shoulder) ruled out. [1]
  • 2025 W6 LV. WR Calvin Ridley limited to 6 snaps and hurt a hamstring. Titans' offense was 32nd in the league and tied for the lead in sacks allowed (25) through six games. [1][2]
  • 2025 W7 NE. First game for interim HC Mike McCoy (Callahan fired Oct. 13 after 1-5). Hardegree kept play-calling. Ridley missed Weeks 7-9 (hamstring). [1][2][3]
  • 2025 W8 IND. Ridley out (hamstring). [1]
  • 2025 W9 LAC. Ridley out (hamstring). [1]
  • 2025 W11 HOU. Ridley broke his right fibula on the first offensive play (season-ending). [1][2]
  • 2025 W18 JAX. Ward left with an AC joint sprain; backup B.Allen played the rest of the game. [1]
  • 2026 W3 NYG. RG Fernando Carmona injured in the first quarter; backup Jackson Slater also injured and placed on IR. Ward threw a last-second interception. [1]
  • 2026 W4 BAL. New starters at right guard. Ward entered with the fourth-lowest pressure rate faced in the NFL (31.3%). [1][2]

Data: Pro Football Reference, FootballDB, nflverse (NFL Next Gen Stats), FTN Data via nflverse. Method and sources