Data desk
Titans on Third Down: Sources and Method
By Sam CassidyUpdated Data through 2026 Week 4
Data sources
- Pro Football Reference game logs
- FootballDB team downs
- nflverse play-by-play, schedules and participation (NFL Next Gen Stats)
- FTN Data via nflverse
- NBC and Populous (stadium surface)
Counting rule
Regular season plays on 3rd down flagged third_down_converted or third_down_failed in nflverse play-by-play. Includes QB kneels, excludes plays erased by accepted penalties. Reconciles to PFR for all 55 Titans games.
How p values are calculated
p values are two-sided exact binomial tests against the league rate that season. About 3 of 55 games would flag by chance. Splits are about 150 rows, so single results are leads, not conclusions.
What this page cannot tell you
- Play call means play type, depth, direction, run gap, play action, screen, RPO and motion. No public source has the actual playbook call.
- Weather is game level only.
- 2026 participation data is not published, so formation and defensive alignment splits cover 2023 to 2025.
- Nissan Stadium is synthetic (Matrix Helix) since 2023.
Game by game sources
| Season | Wk | Opp | Result | 3rd down | Notes and sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | at NO | L 15-16 | 2 of 12 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 2 | vs LAC | W 27-24 (OT) | 6 of 13 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 3 | at CLE | L 3-27 | 2 of 12 | Malik Willis relieved starter Ryan Tannehill during this game. |
| 2023 | 4 | vs CIN | W 27-3 | 8 of 13 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 5 | at IND | L 16-23 | 5 of 12 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 6 | at BAL | L 16-24 | 1 of 9 | Tannehill suffered a high ankle sprain in this game (8/16, 76 yds, 1 INT before leaving). Willis relieved and took 4 sacks across two fourth-quarter drives. |
| 2023 | 8 | vs ATL | W 28-23 | 5 of 15 | Rookie Will Levis made his NFL debut as primary QB; Willis also played. |
| 2023 | 9 | at PIT | L 16-20 | 3 of 13 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 10 | at TB | L 6-20 | 6 of 15 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 11 | at JAX | L 14-34 | 2 of 7 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 12 | vs CAR | W 17-10 | 2 of 11 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 13 | vs IND | L 28-31 (OT) | 6 of 17 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 14 | at MIA | W 28-27 | 5 of 13 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 15 | vs HOU | L 16-19 (OT) | 5 of 15 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 16 | vs SEA | L 17-20 | 6 of 12 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 17 | at HOU | L 3-26 | 1 of 12 | Game logs only |
| 2023 | 18 | vs JAX | W 28-20 | 6 of 11 | Game logs only |
| 2024 | 1 | at CHI | L 17-24 | 3 of 14 | Game logs only |
| 2024 | 2 | vs NYJ | L 17-24 | 5 of 12 | Game logs only |
| 2024 | 3 | vs GB | L 14-30 | 3 of 9 | Game logs only |
| 2024 | 4 | at MIA | W 31-12 | 2 of 12 | Will Levis hurt his throwing shoulder diving for a first down and left the game (SI, Oct. 9 and Oct. 25, 2024). |
| 2024 | 6 | vs IND | L 17-20 | 4 of 11 | Levis played this game after the shoulder injury (bye in Week 5). Note: SI Nov. 6, 2024 dates the shoulder injury to Week 6; SI Oct. 9 and Oct. 25 date it to Week 4. |
| 2024 | 7 | at BUF | L 10-34 | 6 of 16 | Mason Rudolph started in place of Levis (shoulder). |
| 2024 | 8 | at DET | L 14-52 | 3 of 11 | Mason Rudolph started in place of Levis (shoulder). |
| 2024 | 9 | vs NE | W 20-17 (OT) | 7 of 16 | Levis inactive for a third straight week; Rudolph started (third consecutive start). |
| 2024 | 10 | at LAC | L 17-27 | 3 of 9 | Levis returned as the starter (Titans had hoped for a Week 10 return). |
| 2024 | 11 | vs MIN | L 13-23 | 6 of 15 | Game logs only |
| 2024 | 12 | at HOU | W 32-27 | 4 of 14 | Game logs only |
| 2024 | 13 | at WAS | L 19-42 | 5 of 12 | Game logs only |
| 2024 | 14 | vs JAX | L 6-10 | 8 of 16 | Levis was hit by Jacksonville's Josh Hines-Allen and appeared to hurt his shoulder again. |
| 2024 | 15 | vs CIN | L 27-37 | 5 of 8 | Rudolph replaced Levis during the game and went 21/26 for 209 yds. |
| 2024 | 16 | at IND | L 30-38 | 5 of 11 | Levis benched; Rudolph started (announced Dec. 18, 2024). |
| 2024 | 17 | at JAX | L 13-20 | 7 of 14 | Game logs only |
| 2024 | 18 | vs HOU | L 14-23 | 5 of 15 | Callahan announced Levis would start the finale; Rudolph also played. |
| 2025 | 1 | at DEN | L 12-20 | 2 of 14 | RT JC Latham aggravated a hip injury in this game. Rookie QB Cam Ward (No. 1 pick) started. |
| 2025 | 2 | vs LAR | L 19-33 | 6 of 15 | RT Latham out (hip). Ward was sacked 11 times in the first two games, losing 82 yards. |
| 2025 | 3 | vs IND | L 20-41 | 5 of 14 | Game logs only |
| 2025 | 4 | at HOU | L 0-26 | 2 of 11 | Callahan handed play-calling to QBs coach Bo Hardegree ahead of this game (announced Sept. 23 after an 0-3 start). |
| 2025 | 5 | at ARI | W 22-21 | 5 of 15 | Latham and Blake Hance (shoulder) ruled out. |
| 2025 | 6 | at LV | L 10-20 | 3 of 13 | WR Calvin Ridley limited to 6 snaps and hurt a hamstring. Titans' offense was 32nd in the league and tied for the lead in sacks allowed (25) through six games. |
| 2025 | 7 | vs NE | L 13-31 | 3 of 10 | First game for interim HC Mike McCoy (Callahan fired Oct. 13 after 1-5). Hardegree kept play-calling. Ridley missed Weeks 7-9 (hamstring). |
| 2025 | 8 | at IND | L 14-38 | 6 of 15 | Ridley out (hamstring). |
| 2025 | 9 | vs LAC | L 20-27 | 1 of 9 | Ridley out (hamstring). |
| 2025 | 11 | vs HOU | L 13-16 | 6 of 15 | Ridley broke his right fibula on the first offensive play (season-ending). |
| 2025 | 12 | vs SEA | L 24-30 | 6 of 17 | Game logs only |
| 2025 | 13 | vs JAX | L 3-25 | 2 of 12 | Game logs only |
| 2025 | 14 | at CLE | W 31-29 | 6 of 17 | Game logs only |
| 2025 | 15 | at SF | L 24-37 | 3 of 9 | Game logs only |
| 2025 | 16 | vs KC | W 26-9 | 9 of 17 | Game logs only |
| 2025 | 17 | vs NO | L 26-34 | 5 of 15 | Game logs only |
| 2025 | 18 | at JAX | L 7-41 | 4 of 14 | Ward left with an AC joint sprain; backup B.Allen played the rest of the game. |
| 2026 | 1 | vs NYJ | L 10-23 | 4 of 12 | Game logs only |
| 2026 | 2 | vs PHI | L 20-24 | 6 of 13 | Game logs only |
| 2026 | 3 | at NYG | L 7-12 | 5 of 13 | RG Fernando Carmona injured in the first quarter; backup Jackson Slater also injured and placed on IR. Ward threw a last-second interception. |
| 2026 | 4 | at BAL | L 18-24 | 2 of 10 | New starters at right guard. Ward entered with the fourth-lowest pressure rate faced in the NFL (31.3%). |
Known source conflicts
Will Levis shoulder injury, 2024
SI reports on Oct. 9 and Oct. 25, 2024 date the shoulder injury to Week 4. An SI report on Nov. 6, 2024 dates it to Week 6. The sources disagree. We report both and do not pick one.